Adam Grant’s Think Again makes the case for thinking like a scientist: treat what you believe as a hypothesis, and change your mind when the evidence calls for it. I try to hold my own tools to that standard. Each one rests on published research, and every source is here so you can check my reasoning and question it. When the evidence changes, I update the tools.
Amanda Swerdlow
Themes
- Programs take time to show results 7 sources
- Measuring for improvement and for accountability 4 sources
- Deciding before the data 5 sources
- Teams learning from their own cycles 4 sources
- Teachers and the adults in the room 5 sources
- Whose voice shapes the findings 2 sources
Each entry says what the source found, links to the original, and links to the pages where I use it.
The gatormarks researchers from the University of Florida, where I studied.
Show the research behind
Showing all 27 sources.
Programs take time to show results
Why a flat first year is often a measurement problem before it is a program problem.
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Fixsen et al. (2005)
Getting a program fully running in a new site often takes two to four years. Most evaluations happen before that point, so a program can look ineffective because it was measured too early.
Fixsen, D. L., Naoom, S. F., Blase, K. A., Friedman, R. M., & Wallace, F. (2005). Implementation research: A synthesis of the literature. National Implementation Research Network, University of South Florida. Source for Fixsen et al. (2005) (opens in a new tab)
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Fullan (2001)
Fullan named the early slump after a change starts the implementation dip.
Fullan, M. (2001). Leading in a culture of change. Jossey-Bass.
Used in The curve
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Borman, Hewes, Overman & Brown (2003)
Across 29 comprehensive school reform models, effects were particularly strong in schools that had implemented a model for five years or more.
Borman, G. D., Hewes, G. M., Overman, L. T., & Brown, S. (2003). Comprehensive school reform and achievement: A meta-analysis. Review of Educational Research, 73(2). Source for Borman, Hewes, Overman & Brown (2003) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve
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May & Supovitz (2006)
Following one reform model in Rochester, New York, for 11 years, the authors found yearly effects in elementary and middle grades reading and math that kept adding up.
May, H., & Supovitz, J. A. (2006). Capturing the cumulative effects of school reform: An 11-year study of the impacts of America's Choice on student achievement. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 28(3). Source for May & Supovitz (2006) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve
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Wiltsey Stirman et al. (2012)
After initial support ends, partial continuation was more common than continuing the whole program. Where fidelity was rated independently, fewer than half of providers kept the practice up at a high level.
Wiltsey Stirman, S., Kimberly, J., Cook, N., Calloway, A., Castro, F., & Charns, M. (2012). The sustainability of new programs and innovations: A review of the empirical literature and recommendations for future research. Implementation Science, 7, 17. Source for Wiltsey Stirman et al. (2012) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve
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Hess (1998)
In urban districts, superintendents with short tenures face pressure to show they are making a difference, so new reforms keep arriving. Hess calls this policy churn, and it seldom produces lasting change in classrooms.
Hess, F. M. (1998). Spinning wheels: The politics of urban school reform. Brookings Institution Press. Source for Hess (1998) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve
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Durlak & DuPre (2008)
Mean effect sizes were two to three times higher in programs that were implemented well. Positive results often came with implementation around 60 percent, and few studies reached levels above 80 percent. Shared decision-making among providers, administrators, researchers and community members “has consistently led to better implementation.”
Durlak, J. A., & DuPre, E. P. (2008). Implementation matters: A review of research on the influence of implementation on program outcomes and the factors affecting implementation. American Journal of Community Psychology, 41(3–4), 327–350. Source for Durlak & DuPre (2008) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve · The pebble problem · Capabilities, Instructional Materials Review & Adoption Fidelity
Measuring for improvement and for accountability
The data a team reports and the data a team learns from are often different data.
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Solberg, Mosser & McDonald (1997)
Measurement for improvement, for accountability and for research are different jobs. Measurement for improvement includes setting a baseline and checking newly changed processes. Accountability data “do not usually illuminate how the outcomes were achieved or how processes might be changed to improve them.”
Solberg, L. I., Mosser, G., & McDonald, S. (1997). The three faces of performance measurement: Improvement, accountability, and research. Joint Commission Journal on Quality Improvement, 23(3), 135–147. Source for Solberg, Mosser & McDonald (1997) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve · Before you open the data · Capabilities, Learning-Centered Evaluation & Accountability Design · Capabilities, Continuous Improvement Design & Coaching
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Marsh, Pane & Hamilton (2006)
State test results generally arrived too late to adjust the current school year, and more than 80 percent of superintendents found local assessments more useful for decisions than state tests. Some describe educators as “drowning” in data, and the authors recommend training on how to formulate questions before working with results.
Marsh, J. A., Pane, J. F., & Hamilton, L. S. (2006). Making sense of data-driven decision making in education: Evidence from recent RAND research. RAND Corporation (OP-170). Source for Marsh, Pane & Hamilton (2006) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve · Before you open the data
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Campbell (1979)
“The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decisionmaking, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.”
Campbell, D. T. (1979). Assessing the impact of planned social change. Evaluation and Program Planning, 2(1), 67–90. Source for Campbell (1979) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The look-back grid · The pebble problem
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Bryk, Gomez, Grunow & LeMahieu (2015)
Among the six principles of improvement: “see the system that produces the current outcomes” and “we cannot improve at scale what we cannot measure.”
Bryk, A. S., Gomez, L. M., Grunow, A., & LeMahieu, P. G. (2015). Learning to improve: How America's schools can get better at getting better. Harvard Education Press. Source for Bryk, Gomez, Grunow & LeMahieu (2015) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The look-back grid · Capabilities, Continuous Improvement Design & Coaching
Deciding before the data
Settling the question and the plan before anyone looks at the numbers.
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Patton, Essentials of Utilization-Focused Evaluation
Patton puts the focus of utilization-focused evaluation “on intended use by intended users.”
Patton, M. Q. (2012). Essentials of utilization-focused evaluation (p. 4). SAGE. Further reading on utilization-focused evaluation (opens in a new tab)
Used in Before you open the data · Capabilities, Learning-Centered Evaluation & Accountability Design · Capabilities, Applied Research Studies
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Coburn & Turner (2011)
The review opens with the lesson that data “are only as good as how they are used.”
Coburn, C. E., & Turner, E. O. (2011). Research on data use: A framework and analysis. Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, 9(4), 173–206. Source for Coburn & Turner (2011) (opens in a new tab)
Used in Before you open the data
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Nosek, Ebersole, DeHaven & Mellor (2018)
Defining the question and analysis plan before seeing results, called preregistration, protects against ordinary biases such as hindsight bias.
Nosek, B. A., Ebersole, C. R., DeHaven, A. C., & Mellor, D. T. (2018). The preregistration revolution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(11), 2600–2606. Source for Nosek, Ebersole, DeHaven & Mellor (2018) (opens in a new tab)
Used in Before you open the data
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Klein (2007)
Klein developed the pre-mortem and reports that research by Mitchell, Russo and Pennington found imagining an event had already happened increased people's ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30 percent.
Klein, G. (2007, September). Performing a project premortem. Harvard Business Review. Source for Klein (2007) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The curve
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Tversky & Kahneman (1973)
People judge how frequent or likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5(2), 207–232. Source for Tversky & Kahneman (1973) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The look-back grid · The pebble problem
Teams learning from their own cycles
What makes a team debrief and an improvement cycle worth the time.
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Tannenbaum & Cerasoli (2013)
Across 46 samples, debriefs (also called after-action reviews) improved performance by about 25 percent on average over control groups. Alignment, facilitation and structure are what make a debrief work.
Tannenbaum, S. I., & Cerasoli, C. P. (2013). Do team and individual debriefs enhance performance? A meta-analysis. Human Factors, 55(1), 231–245. Source for Tannenbaum & Cerasoli (2013) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The look-back grid
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Edmondson (1999)
Team psychological safety is associated with learning behavior, and learning behavior mediates between safety and performance.
Edmondson, A. (1999). Psychological safety and learning behavior in work teams. Administrative Science Quarterly, 44(2), 350–383. Source for Edmondson (1999) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The look-back grid
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Reed & Card (2016)
“The problem with PDSA is the oversimplification of the method as it has been translated into healthcare and the failure to invest in a rigorous and tailored application of the approach.”
Reed, J. E., & Card, A. J. (2016). The problem with Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles. BMJ Quality & Safety, 25(3), 147–152. Source for Reed & Card (2016) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The pebble problem · Capabilities, Continuous Improvement Design & Coaching
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Stagner, NORC (2026)
The starting point for the pebble problem. The quoted phrase on that page is his; the quadrants, the example and the reading of them are mine.
Stagner, M. (2026, September). Programs need continuous learning, not just evaluation. NORC at the University of Chicago (NORC Now, LinkedIn). Source for Stagner, NORC (2026) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The pebble problem
Teachers and the adults in the room
Why the people doing the work shape what a program can do.
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RAND (2012)
RAND summarizes the research this way: “teachers matter more to student achievement than any other aspect of schooling.”
RAND Corporation. (2012, October 3). How should we measure teacher effectiveness? RAND blog. Source for RAND (2012) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The pebble problem
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Ronfeldt, Loeb & Wyckoff (2013)
Using more than 850,000 New York City fourth and fifth grade student observations over eight years, students in grade levels with higher teacher turnover scored lower in English language arts and math. The results point to a disruptive effect beyond changes in teacher quality.
Ronfeldt, M., Loeb, S., & Wyckoff, J. (2013). How teacher turnover harms student achievement. American Educational Research Journal, 50(1), 4–36. Source for Ronfeldt, Loeb & Wyckoff (2013) (opens in a new tab)
Used in The pebble problem
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Darling-Hammond, Hyler & Gardner (2017)
From 35 rigorous studies, effective professional development is content focused, involves active learning, supports collaboration, uses models of effective practice, provides coaching and expert support, offers feedback and reflection, and is sustained over time.
Darling-Hammond, L., Hyler, M. E., & Gardner, M. (2017). Effective teacher professional development. Learning Policy Institute. Source for Darling-Hammond, Hyler & Gardner (2017) (opens in a new tab)
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Vescio, Ross & Adams (2008)
All eight studies that examined student achievement found that student learning improved in schools where teachers worked in PLCs, especially PLCs focused on student learning. The authors note that few studies move beyond teachers' self-reports.
Vescio, V., Ross, D., & Adams, A. (2008). A review of research on the impact of professional learning communities on teaching practice and student learning. Teaching and Teacher Education, 24(1), 80–91. Source for Vescio, Ross & Adams (2008) (opens in a new tab)
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Learning by the Book, Harvard CEPR (2019)
The study found “little evidence of differences in average math achievement growth in schools using different elementary math curricula.”
Blazar, D., Kane, T. J., et al. (2019). Learning by the book. Center for Education Policy Research, Harvard University. Source for Learning by the Book, Harvard CEPR (2019) (opens in a new tab)
Used in Capabilities, Instructional Materials Review & Adoption Fidelity
Whose voice shapes the findings
Who gets heard when findings are written.
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Gillborn, Warmington & Demack (2018)
Data “cannot 'speak for itself' and critical analyses should be informed by the experiential knowledge of marginalized groups.”
Gillborn, D., Warmington, P., & Demack, S. (2018). QuantCrit: Education, policy, 'Big Data' and principles for a critical race theory of statistics. Race Ethnicity and Education. Source for Gillborn, Warmington & Demack (2018) (opens in a new tab)
Used in Capabilities, Qualitative Analysis & Research-Based Recommendations
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Chicago Beyond (2018)
The guidebook asks, “Whose voice is shaping the narrative and is the community fully represented?”
Chicago Beyond. (2018). Why am I always being researched? A guidebook. Source for Chicago Beyond (2018) (opens in a new tab)
Used in Capabilities, Qualitative Analysis & Research-Based Recommendations